It has been some time since this node was updated with a writeup, and so I feel compelled to write a few updates on George W. Bush, his later career and retirement. I also feel that there is some perspective on the career of George W. Bush that is only becoming clear once he has left the political stage.
George W. Bush won reelection in 2004 by a narrow margin: 2.5% percent of the popular vote, and 35 electoral votes over John Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts. The electoral map that was formed the day or two after the election would form a meme that would help redefine Bush's presidency. This was the idea of red state/blue state, the idea that the United States was divided into the coastal areas, full of multicultural, secular urbanites and rural, inland areas full of religious fundamentalist, poorly educated conservatives. While this image would be partially deconstructed over the coming years (especially after the 2008 Presidential Election), it would form an important cultural meme that would define both Bush as a person and a politician. In 2000, Bush had run as a "uniter, not a divider", but after the 2004 election, he was identified more and more with his core constituency: rural, southern, religiously fundamentalist white conservatives.
Bush's second term started out rocky and got worse. Although history might change the focus, Bush will probably be remembered most for the Iraq War, which dragged out into an increasingly gory and incomprehensible multi-sided civil war, with casualties, atrocities and displacements being front page news every day. While many people had opposed the idea of the war from the start, many who had not opposed it begin to be more and more disappointed at Bush's execution of the war, especially his defense of Donald Rumsfeld, the Secretary of Defense. Another huge setback for Bush was Hurricane Katrina, and his administration's response to it. At the end of 2008, a financial crisis occurred, greatly weakening the US Economy. By the time Bush left office, only his true core supporters still viewed him favorably: he had approval ratings in the low 30s. The Republican nominee for President, John McCain, was an old political and personal rival of Bush's, and tried to distance himself from Bush personally and politically. After Bush left office, he retired quietly and has had very little to say about the politics or policies of his successor, Barack Obama.
That being said, the eight years of Bush's presidency are probably currently remembered as being very much about Geroge W. Bush and his personal style of leadership. It is interesting that while Bush was a greatly polarizing figure, both his supporters and detractors agree on some things about him. Bush is usually described as a religious, straightforward Texan that uses his instincts more than intellectual discussion to make decisions. To those on the left, this is a sign that he is a stupid, simple-minded redneck with a streak of self-righteousness. Those on the right view Bush as a strong leader not prone to flip-flopping, wishy-washing and dilly-dallying.
What is most interesting about the conventional portrait of Bush is that it is contradiction to several basic, checkable facts about his life. George W Bush is not a Texan. George W. Bush was born in New Haven, Connecticut. He attended Phillips Academy, perhaps New England's most elite boarding school. He also attended both Yale and Harvard. His father was born and raised in Connecticut, and his grandfather was a senator from that state. Patrician New England being what it is, George W Bush had relatives and contacts in every corner of the "coastal establishment" that he was later taken to being the antithesis of. This is not to deny that Bush did have deep Texas roots, and that he didn't, for personal and political reasons, court rural and western voters. It is just to point out the obvious fact that he was also deeply embedded in the mainstream of American politics and business.
This personal resume, full of New England connections, is deeply tied to his administration, as well. While Bush's ties to the religious right would be controversial for some, and such things as his visit to Bob Jones University would cause a furor, Bush's cabinet was not picked from Bob Jones, or Oral Roberts, or Liberty University. Bush's cabinet, as well as his top advisors, were the product of the same Ivy League and other top tier mainstream universities as Bush was, and as the cabinets of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama would be. While I am not saying that Bush's religious feelings weren't real, and weren't an important part of his administration, they didn't eclipse the mainstream academic pedigree of much of his administration.
I have a feeling that in the future, Bush the man will take a smaller and smaller role in historian's understanding of his administration. Future historians will not argue that the Iraq War was caused by Bush's personal qualities, good or bad, but was simply the result of a slightly more aggressive take on what was the mainstream of US policy towards Iraq throughout the previous Bush and Clinton administrations. Likewise, policy towards Israel was probably not formed by religious sentiment that Israel had a role to play in the Millenium, but rather by the same policy and political considerations that had given Israel a favored status for the past several decades.
In general, historians have treated very few historical events as the results of a president's personal traits. While Herbert Hoover's conservative outlook, and Lyndon Johnson's stubbornness are sometimes treated in dealing with the Great Depression or Vietnam War, I don't think many historians see those as the causative factors. I believe that even if George W. Bush was the caricatured Texan (which again, he is not) that he has been portrayed to be, future historians will not view that as importantly in analyzing his administration as it had been while that administration was in progress. Of course, history has only begin the process of analyzing, so it will be a while before we know the verdict.