The Passion of SpongeBob
or
Nickelodeon Puts FOX News Channel in the No Spin Zone
(100% Falafel Free!)
Over the last few years, Rupert Murdoch's FOX News Channel (FNC) has carved itself a spot among the cable networks, especially news. To hear them talk about it, the channel is the most important, most influential, "most trusted" (according to a currently airing commercial), most watched, news network out there. While "important" and "trusted" may be in the eye of the beholder, the influence (though the extent may be argued) is certainly there as the two other news networks, CNN (though it also has CNN Headline News, the main channel is what will be referred to, as it is the flagship) and MSNBC have shown a willingness to imitate some of the successful moves by FOX. And with FNC's stable of prime time "stars" like Bill O'Reilly (whose The O'Reilly Factor is FNC's—and all cable news'—number one show) and Sean Hannity who are also best-selling authors, there is much guaranteed success. FNC is a force to be reckoned with and they give off the impression that they know it and they want you to know it, too—that ratings-wise they knock it out of the park every night.
Not even close. A closer look at the ratings shows something that those of us who'll never grow up always suspected—in prime time and overall ratings, that lovable little goof SpongeBob and his other Nickelodeon friends regularly outdraw FNC. Even that number one show. Over the last year (about March 2003 through mid-May 2004; survey dates below) with the exception of the first month of the US invasion of Iraq—March 2003—when all the cable news networks did well (FNC's average numbers were up anywhere from two to five times—the upper limit based on FNC's highest rating) the Bob and friends, animated and not, have consistently outdone the over-inflated news network.
As has been alluded, despite the title, this isn't only about Mr. Squarepants v. Mr. O'Reilly. This is a look at how a network devoted to younger viewers routinely draws larger audiences, even during prime time, than the serious, "fair and balanced" news network (so "fair and balanced" they had to trademark the phrase—hunt down the transcript from the court dismissal of FOX's lawsuit against Al Franken for a few chuckles). That is the main thrust of this piece. It also puts cable ratings into the big picture with comparison/contrast to regular network television, FNC ratings against other cable networks, and of course, Bob and friends. There's some lighter fare later on, looking at how the two compare using a search engine and book/DVD sales. Then there is an examination (and challenge) of FNC's claim to being on top of the cable news pile.
Though this may be dry or boring and not funny enough, it is truly inspired by the wonderful blissful obliviousness of a little yellow cartoon sponge and the simple, sunny outlook that gets him through life. His show probably does a lot more positive things than yelling, cutting off people's mics, and calling people pin heads. Bill could learn a few lessons from watching Bob. But don't hold your breath. Or gills. However you manage your oxygen intake.
A Pineapple under the Sea: The Topsy-turvy world of cable Television
Before one looks into cable ratings, one should understand a little about them. Nielsen Media Research is the company that is responsible for gathering information concerning the viewing habits of US television viewers. This is done mainly in two ways: the viewer writes down what shows were watched/taped in a "diary" that is later mailed back to the company; also an electronic device that can be connected to the set monitoring viewing. The data is broken down into ratings and shares. The rating is a number representing people with televisions watching a particular program (in its main usage, though it could measure the number of women or people over 50 watching; Nielsen has detailed breakdowns that are not free to the general public). The share is the percentage of possible sets tuned to a particular show. If a show has a 50 share, it means that 50 percent of the televisions turned on are tuned to a particular program. Currently (based on an estimate from September 2003) there are approximately 108.4 million television households in the US, making a ratings point mean a viewing number of about 1,084,000 viewers. A viewer is anyone over the age of two.
Beyond that it gets more complicated (I'm treading water as it is). Fortunately, we'll stick to the regular ratings number and/or the number of estimated viewers (when provided). Nielsen kindly provides both (there were a few glitches during the research that left some gaps—will be explained below).
That said, let's put things in perspective. Being the number one (an issue to be addressed below) cable news network sure sounds impressive and it undoubtedly is in its own context, but is it in the overall picture? No so much.
How does FNC measure up to the regular network news? During May (2004) sweeps, the NBC Nightly News with Tom Brokaw was number one (and had been for ten straight sweeps—20 out of the previous 21). It averaged 8.94 million viewers. All three major networks (ABC, CBS, NBC) account for nearly 25 million people during their timeslot (6:30-7:00 PM Eastern; times will be listed as US Eastern Standard time). That's a big bag of barnacles. In the splintering world of entertainment/news/sports it might not be fair to put FNC up against the number one show. How about third place CBS and its Evening News (the network and anchor—Dan Rather—most likely to send hardliners foaming at the mouth like sharks at a chum festival)? 6.98 million.
The weekly prime time (defined as 8:00-11:00 PM) ratings for FNC during May (somewhat inexact given the comparison is for single shows versus FNC's whole prime time lineup)—26 April through 23 May—average rating: 0.9. Perhaps a million viewers (over time the average has been a bit higher; don't just go by a single month). If one really wants to see how low this top cable network is on the food chain we can look at the top prime time shows on the networks. Using the latest Nielsen ratings out today (9 June 2004) that cover the week of 31 May to 6 June, the top rated network show is CBS's CSI (which airs at 9:00 PM on Thursday nights) with a household rating of 10.2 and an estimated viewership of nearly 15 million people. It was also a rerun. FNC's rank: below plankton. Talking Marianas trench low. In fact, the number ten cable show that week, an old episode of Law & Order on TNT had a 2.7 rating and just over four million viewers. The last time a non-special FNC hit that high or higher was April 2003 (regretfully I only have the ratings for the "regular" television season, so from the end of May to the end of September 2003 I can't say for sure), during the fall of Baghdad.
It is true that specials/events help the ratings. FNC scored big for the president's 13 April 2004 news conference (which wasn't aired on the major networks, something that inflated the ratings) beating out the all basic cable programming that week—its analysis also made the top 15 cable programs for the week but sunk behind two episodes of Nickelodeon's Fairly Odd Parents and the Bob, as well as two of Spike TV's WWE wrestling shows, Comedy Central's Chapelle's Show, and our detective and attorney friends over at TNT. All were eclipsed by the king of the (overall) cable ratings HBO's The Sopranos which had 5.8 million to FNC's 3.5 million viewers.
It should be pointed out that despite the current being taken on this voyage, FNC is also routinely beaten—even pummeled—by other basic cable shows/networks. The king of the non "premium" ("pay" channels like HBO or Showtime) cable ratings is Spike's WWE which wins number one or somewhere in the top three nearly every week, only pushed back for other sporting events like college/pro football and special events like baseball and basketball playoffs. For the prime time ratings, besides Nickelodeon, TNT and USA routinely place near the top of the list. Their counter programming is primarily courtesy of Dick Wolf: Law & Order (TNT) and Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (USA). All of the former are old syndicated episodes and most of the latter (they do second run current season episodes after NBC airs them). TNT balances with basketball games and some other programming. USA usually with movies. ESPN runs from the middle to the top third of the pack and is sometimes joined by the Cartoon Network and Lifetime (programming for "women"). If FNC appears at all, it's in the middle or the bottom of the top 10.
Adding insult to injury, why not see how FNC stacks up to syndicated shows. These are usually reruns of older dramas/sitcoms or gameshows/infotainment/"reality." Again using the most recent ratings as above, the lowest rated show in syndication's top 10 is Judge Judy. A 5.0 rating and over 6.5 million viewers. Dr. Phil makes FNC look lower than flounder with a 5.6 and 7.6 million viewers.
Now it is true that network viewing (including news) is eroding through the diversity of choices and cable news has been steadily growing over the last few years, helped along immensely by the events of 11 September 2001, followed by military action in Afghanistan and Iraq. Part of it is the "24-hour" cycle that allows news any time rather than just during the dinner hour as that time was once called. Another is the talk show style of analysis and commentary that connects with viewers. But when the ratings are looked at, the "Big 3" networks continue to blow cable news out of the water. In June 2003, when the residual rating explosion of the war began to wane (given that people believed it was basically over), CBS news had an average viewership of 6.5 million. That was considered low. That first week of the war, FNC's special report on the Iraq military action got a 5.53 rating (which seems to be its highest of the year). Still below CBS. In fact, that weeks, NBC's Saturday night rerun of Law & Order: Special Victims Unit beat it by more than two points (7.57).
Point is, that being the alleged number one cable news network may be a big thing in its context, in the overall picture it's awfully small. During 2003, all three cable news channels together failed to average five million viewers in prime time, network news stayed close to 30 million—even the morning news was around 15 million. While this may change one day, (there is a slight decline in prime time network news: about -5 million between 1997 and the end of 2003), there is no indication that it'll be anytime soon.
Fine print stuff: what were the parameters of the research
This section is mostly centered on surveys of ratings for "ad-supported cable networks"—i.e., "basic cable" rather than "pay" or "premium" channels (in the overall cable ratings, HBO's The Sopranos is rarely out of the number one spot). Primarily, the comparison/contrast will be between Nickelodeon and FNC but other networks' programming will occasionally be mentioned to further context. Most of the data come from Nielsen/Galaxy Explorer Prime time, archived and sorted at http://www.tvb.org/rcentral/viewertrack/viewertrack.asp (this site only deals with prime time numbers). Weekly Top 10 or Top 15 detailed numbers for individual programs come from http://www.nielsenmedia.com and http://www.zap2it.com/television/news/ratings, respectively (the last two sets of numbers, both from Nielsen, are for the whole day and include premium cable). The www.tvb.org site does not round up the ratings numbers so when the hundredths place is used, the data are from that site.
There is more than one survey of the information being integrated into this article. A brief glance at the beginning of the 2002-2003 season, followed by a sort of blow by blow around the outbreak of the fighting in Iraq (March 2003) until the end of that season. There is a bit more detail—and more looks at other cable networks—because the circumstances were out of character with the overall trend of 2003 to 2004 (cutting off mid-May). There is also a look at the final two months (27 October through 28 December) of 2003 that focuses on Nick and FNC, exclusively, showing just how much Nick owns the prime time cable viewing audience, despite November being (at that time) the second worst month for deaths of US soldiers (81) since the start of the war and December being the month Saddam Hussein was captured.
Then there is a look at the top 100 programs overall for the first four months of 2004. And finally, a close look at the two and a half months during which the initial research for this was done (1 March 2004 to 16 May 2004). This timespan included the uprising in Fallujah as well as the two months with the highest number of American deaths in Iraq: 139 in April (one more than the total number killed between the start of the war and the end of August 2003) and 82 in May (edging out November). Given those events, as well as the primaries and start of Senator John Kerry's and President George W. Bush's presidential campaigns, one might expect FNC to regain much of its viewership from the start of the war. That turns out to be false. Never count out the Bob.
Currently, the prime time lineups of the two networks are as follows:
FNC
The Fox Report With Shepard Smith 7:00 PM-8:00 PM
The O'Reilly Factor 8:00 PM-9:00 PM
Hannity & Colmes 9:00 PM-10:00 PM
On the Record With Greta Van Susteren 10:00 PM-11:00 PM
Nickelodeon
The Adventures of Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius 7:00-7:30 PM
Fairly Odd Parents 7:30-8:00 PM
SpongeBob Squarepants 8:00-8:30 PM
Sabrina the Teenage Witch 8:30-9:00 PM
Notes:
- The 9:00 to 11:00 slots are part of "Nick at Night" which shows reruns of "family" type sitcoms. During much of the research this included an hour (two episodes) of Full House but the slot also airs other shows (The Cosby Show, Who's the Boss?, for example). Regardless, it is non-original and syndicated episodes of shows that haven't been in broadcast prime time for, at least, several years. (A new half hour animated show coproduced by Bill Cosby, titled Fatherhood is being added the rotation for the 9:00-11:00 period.)
- While prime time is generally considered 8:00 PM to 11:00 PM, the nature of Nick's offerings makes it more useful to use 7:00 PM as the starting point.
- Nickelodeon's Friday programming tends to differ somewhat from its Monday through Thursday lineup, sometimes substituting specials or other Nicktoons. FNC sometimes rebroadcasts previous shows by the same lineup. I am not aware of how long this present lineup has been static (FNC has remained the same since the end of May 2003 when I got access to cable).
- As far as prime time v. prime time goes there may be certain comparison problems with Nick's half hour shows against FNC's hour long shows but the overall prime time ratings are still consistent and the number of Nick shows in the top 10-25 still far outnumber FNC (even if one wishes to divide by two to—crudely—put them on a more even keel).
- The www.tvb.org site has extensive archives but doesn't usually give the day of the week the program drew its audience or estimate the number of viewers. Before 2004, it breaks things down to the top 25 but only the top 10 during 2004. It leaves out the premium channels.
- Sadly, because of lack of archives for the other two sites, I was unable to get the top shows (whole day) for all weeks for the survey of March to May 2004. Those will be differentiated from primetime.
Final note: this is the long, detailed, boring part for masochists and trivia buffs. For the shorter and somewhat lighter stuff, skip to the later sections. So grab a bag of Krabby Patties—we're headed for rough seas.
2003
Part 1: 2002-2003 season
Looking at the 2002-2003 season (week of 23 September 2002 to 25 May 2003), O'Reilly's show first makes the top 10 during the week ending 3 November with a 1.71, behind both Rugrats and Fairly Odd Parents (both at 2.0). Moving ahead to February, FNC does well with the President's State of the Union Address, coming in at number two and getting a rating of 3.51—less than half of the number 25 on the broadcast network list: FOX's The Simpsons with 8.16. In fact, it didn't even crack the top 100 programs overall. CBS's analysis of the speech scored a 7.1. O'Reilly comes close to cracking the 2.0 level for the week ending 23 February (1.99). Close but no sea cucumber. He also failed to beat out SpongeBob and Jimmy Neutron (2.12 and 2.08, respectively). The next week he was beaten by the Bob and Dora the Explorer.
Mr. O'Reilly finally breaks the surface of the water to the land of 2.0 the next week (2.16). Congratulations. And a round of applause for Mr. Bob who beat him by a stroke with 2.19. Like the nation on its roll to war, O'Reilly followed that up with a 2.23 for the week ending March 16, beating SpongeBob by .03 of a ratings point. And only losing to Law & Order by .01. Things seemed to be looking up for the network. That 2.23 was the same as the average prime time rating for FNC that month—up 145% from March 2002. The next week, the war on Iraq began, the sort of thing that is a ratings gold mine to a twenty-four hour news channel and it was. FNC posted its highest rating for the year (at least during the season proper) with one of its Special Reports on Iraq, hitting 5.53. In fact, FNC held 15 out of the Top 25 cable programs for the week (CNN had 8 and had the only non-FNC program in the Top 10: number 3). The O'Reilly Factor doubled its usual audience, nearly hitting 4.0 (3.92). Interestingly, even with all the viewers attention focused on the war, two of cable's top drawers still made the list: WWE Entertainment at 22 with a 3.04 and Bob tying CNN's Larry King Weekend for 24 (2.88—still higher than O'Reilly's highest rating prior to that week). Then again, as noted above, NBC's SVU rerun had a 7.57.
The next week saw a drop-off of the highest numbers but FNC was still ahead of the rest, with Bill managing a number one spot (3.83) and the network holding 8 spots of the Top 25. Then again, number two was TBS' broadcast of the 2000 Sandra Bullock comedy Miss Congeniality, rebroadcasts of which also took spot eleven and tied for spot twelve. WWE clocked in at 9. Ever the Little Sponge that could, Bob stayed on the list (this time beating Larry King Weekend, though not Larry King Live...damn) at 21 with a 2.28 rating—still higher than Bill's highest prior to the war. That week also saw the appearance of the other heavy hitter FNC prime time shows, Hannity & Colmes and On the Record with Greta Van Susteren at three and five, respectively (both had over 3.0). The next week (ending 6 April) Bill, Sean and Alan, and Greta were one, two, and three, respectively (3.97, 3.26, 3.02). Bob v. Larry? Mr. King was in 18 (Lary King Weekend; Larry King Live was in fifth place) and Mr. Squarepants was 20 (2.13). Curse you Mr. King!
Nearly a month after the war had begun, FNC was still doing well, all three shows still in the Top 10 and O'Reilly on top but news was losing ground. Number two that week (ending 13 April) was The Learning Channels' Trading Spaces: Goes Hollywood (the rebroadcast was also number seven). Two of the top 10 went to sports (NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament on ESPN and NBA basketball on TNT), another to the cable juggernaut that is WWE, TBS with a movie. Nickelodeon had All Grown Up (ninth, 2.42). Bob was at 2.05 and tied at 17 with a TNT original movie. And Larry King Live won again. May you get sand in suit, Mr. King!
The next week, FNC held the top two spots, followed by WWE and Bob makes a return to the top ten (number ten, to be exact—Larry beat him again). The week ending 27 April saw the return to normalcy with WWE claiming the title and Bill slipping to two (2.56). Hannity & Colmes managed to make the top 10 (at ten) but well behind Jimmy Neutron and Bob (four and five, respectively). Then the week when the US was informed of "Mission Accomplished" (1 May), FNC only did well because of the Presidential address (number one with a 3.29) and analysis. Bill (number eight) only ended up one ahead of Bob. Sean and Alan tied Jimmy Neutron at 17 and Greta just made the end of the top 25 list (right behind Nickelodeon's The Amanda Show and All That). It's also nice to see the Cartoon Network's Dexter's Laboratory making it to 16 (beating two-thirds of FNC's power lineup).
The week ending 11 May...SpongeBob regains the lead! His show comes in at 7 (1.81) and The Factor at 8 (1.73). O'Reilly's is the only FNC show that makes the top 25. Seven Nickelodeon shows make it (and four Cartoon Network shows). The sea was full of schools of 'toons. The next week offered another 7/8 split, only this time, O'Reilly's eighth spot is shared by Nick's Hey Arnold. Another Nicktoon, Fairly Odd Parents, rounds out the top 10. One show in the top 25 by FNC and (counting the Cartoon Network) ten shows that are supposed to be primarily for children. If one looks at that key demographic (adults 25-54) O'Reilly fares worse: 18 with a rating of 0.63. WWE is still Lord of the Ring, though (sadly) our Nick friends are nowhere to be seen.
The end of the season (week ending 25 May), FNC's only ratings "giant" drops out of the top 10 and sinks to number twelve, right behind one of the Cartoon Network's broadcasts of The Powerpuff Girls Movie (which also took the eight and 24 spots). Bob was number ten. Mr. King appeared to have been shanghaied.
Part 2: last two months of 2003
A look at the final two months of 2003 (27 October through 28 December) shows Nick gaining ground on FNC, despite the above noted increase of Iraq casualties and the capture of Saddam Hussein. The period runs nine weeks and not once did Nickelodeon not have something on the top 25. Not only that, it had multiple shows every week. Nick has a total of 59 appearances and averaged over six shows each week in the top 25. Its top show was Fairly Odd Parents with nine appearances. It averaged a 2.12 rating. The highest Nickelodeon rating was 2.76 the week of Thanksgiving.
During that period FNC only scored five appearances in the top 25 (four were O'Reilly—reruns of Full House made the list seven times). The network's highest rating was 1.90 for when Hussein was captured. That week Nick had four shows with higher ratings (1.91 to 2.26) with two other shows making the list with lower numbers. O'Reilly's show averaged a 1.55 (FNC's overall average was boosted by the Hussein coverage to 1.62) and his highest rating was during the week ending 21 December with 1.72. That same week Nick had nine shows in the top 25. Of those his show only beat two. Just ahead of O'Reilly's show (with a 1.80) was My Life as a Teenage Robot (and who wouldn't prefer Jenny to Bill?) tied with As Told by Ginger. Of Nick's 59 top 25 appearances during that period, 33 had higher ratings than O'Reilly's highest rating (one tied). Clearly, the powerhouse news network can't hold a Zippo to the Sponge network. Or some sort of electric eel.
An interesting side note is that for ages 25 to 54, neither network had a top 25 appearance. Not so surprising for a network aimed at children or young teens. What's FNC's excuse? Had the bends? Seasick much?
2004
The established pattern holds for 2004, though looking at the top 100 rated shows each month (January through April), FNC looks somewhat better than it did at the end of 2003. A note on the top 100: it includes the overall (broadcast and non-premium—often referred to as "ad-based"—cable) prime time ratings. In no case does cable actually make the top 100 during those four months but www.tvb.org also provides the ten highest cable shows and their position in the ratings. The top cable show each month averaged 158.5 out of the top television shows. January was good to FNC because of the State of the Union address, analysis, and one of the Democratic primary debates. The address had a 3.08 and came in third, after two college bowl games, for cable, 171 overall. Bob did do better than the other two FNC shows (2.40 to 2.19 and 2.18), but they beat out Fairly Odd Parents (2.05). What was at the bottom of the top 100? A tie: NBC's Ed and ABC's Celebrity Mole Yucatan, both with a 5.25.
Neither network made February's list as cable's top ten was taken up by five spots for TNT's coverage of various NBA All-Star Game activities and ESPN had the Pro Bowl.
March had four Nick shows: SpongeBob (second, with a 3.21), Fairly Odd Parents, All Grown Up, and Jimmy Neutron. No FNC show made it on the top 10 cable list (meaning no show had a higher rating than Jimmy Neutrons's 1.86). Number 100 on the main list was FOX's Malcolm in the Middle with a 4.90.
April was also better for FNC due to the (rare for Bush) presidential press conference that put them at the top of the cable stack with a 3.22 (number 150 out of the top 100), though its analysis (which in its "fair and balanced" way did not include any democrats) was beaten by Nick's Kids' Choice Awards and WWE Entertainment. SpongeBob also made the list in sixth place (175 overall). For perspective, CBS' Saturday movie made number 100 with a 5.03. Or worse: FNC's high rating was more than doubled by the number 52 show: ABC's The Nick and Jessica Variety Hour which had a 6.71. That's a fine kettle of fish.
Now we take a look at the period of 1 March to 16 May 2004. As far as network prime time ratings (not individual shows), during those eleven weeks, Nick held the number one ratings position three times and number two six times. The highest average rating was 2.11 (overall average was 1.85). FNC's highest position was seven (five times). It did make the top ten each time though twice in tenth place. Its highest average rating was 1.16, overall average about 1.0 (six times the ratings were below 1.0).
Perhaps more interesting is a look at the top 10/15 cable ratings (the top 15 aren't archived and a few were missed making the top 10 necessary to supply the details). This includes the whole day, not just prime time (and some of the sources include premium cable). And its far worse for FNC. Sharkbait bad.
Top 15 whole day ratings
(Of the eleven weeks surveyed, I don't have the whole day ratings for four: weeks 2, 3, and 8 and only the top ten from weeks 6 and 11.) During week one, Nick had 10 of 15 spots in the (all) cable top 15 and carried both the one and two positions—both were Bob with his top rating being 3.8 (4.11 million viewers). Both were in prime time. Week four had Nick with 10 of 15 spots again, its highest position being a three-way tie for fourth with a 3.0 rating. The shows were Fairly Odd Parents, HBO's Deadwood, and the Bob. The Odd Parents had the largest audience with 3.22 million viewers—as well as holding five chart positions by itself (Bob had four). Week five saw the Sponge Posse claiming 7 of 15 spots, the highest being a tie with Spike's WWE Raw for a 3.3 rating. The Bob drew 3.57 million viewers. What about O'Reilly? Or Hannity & Colmes (to rip off an Al Franken typographical joke)? You won't see them. Must not have their sea legs because FNC simply cannot get a hold on the ratings. There are only three instances where it cracks the top ten (cannot vouch for the top 15 for the missing weeks). Bill does make it once. But that's in the next section.
Week seven is the second and third appearance of FNC in the top 10. Neither are a regular shows but both are primetime: the presidential news conference and its analysis, taking spots two and ten, respectively. The conference with its 3.2 and 3.49 million viewers (the show tied with WWE Raw Zone) was easily whacked by HBO's Sopranos which had a 5.4 and 5.84 million viewers. The conference actually made number 77 on the top 100 for all broadcast and ad-supported cable, though still a third of a ratings point behind ABC's | 
